P2P No. 51 — The price of not having contingency plans
“Invest in preparedness, not in prediction.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
I did not expect a snowstorm-caused train apocalypse to inspire me for a while. But here I am, making new plans. I thought that I was prepared for travel delays. Without a book or a podcast, I have not travelled (not even commuted) for years. I always note alternative trips in case I miss a connection. But I did not have a contingency plan. Do you?
We want to optimize our lives and reduce overhead, needless meetings, and extra storage space. When the unexpected hits, the invoice will be due immediately. As the world learned that just-in-time logistics works only when supply chains run as expected, so do your plans. You cannot predict when things will go wrong, but you can prepare. Yes, you cannot affect everything. But, no, you cannot say you have not thought about "that thing" going wrong. There will be overhead, but that is not all bad: it is like an insurance policy.
The message is not to imagine a doomsday scenario. Neither to deceive yourself that you can predict how our complex world will wreak havoc on your plans. But ask yourself: when that happens, how can I ensure I get the most out of it? And what is the price I am willing to pay for my preparedness?
You need to ensure you are in the right position. Giving your best is only enough if you only have bad options. You might pat yourself on the back for choosing Diet Coke, but where is your water bottle?
I was lucky to get away from this travel mayhem without significant compromises. I needed to make new plans from scratch and lost precious time. But I also gained something: the nudge to think about my contingency plan. I needed to write down how to ensure the bare minimum I can do is still acceptable even when the world goes down. My goal is to reduce variance in my consistency. It won't be my best day, but hopefully, neither the worst. And that should be good enough for the long term.
Down to the weeds
Most of us must battle delay, failure, and getting stuck, but we must also prepare for good opportunities. Here is how I try to get the best out of them:
Delays: books and podcasts are always within my reach, or at least I can do emails
Consciously accepting that failure is part and parcel of research.
Diversifying my projects and my identity (e.g., having hobbies). When I fail in something, I can still excel in something else.
Opportunities: keeping some slack in my schedule or having flexible tasks.